J Affect Disord. 2025 Oct 16:120362. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2025.120362. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders significantly contribute to the global disease burden, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing studies lack systematic pandemic impact assessments and post-pandemic trend predictions.
METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed Age-Standardized Prevalence (ASPR), Incidence (ASIR), and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to assess regional, gender, and age disparities. Joinpoint regression (1990-2021) calculated Annual Percentage Change (APC), Average APC (AAPC), and 95 % CIs. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected prevalence (2022-2050).
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, ASPR, ASIR, and DALYs for depression increased significantly, accelerating during 2019-2021. High Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions bore the steepest burden increase. In 2021, ASIR exceeded projections in Central Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa/Middle East, Australasia, Tropical Latin America, and Western Europe. The United States saw the largest global burden increase, while Singapore showed the greatest decline. Women consistently experienced higher burden than men, with females aged 10-14 exhibiting a pandemic change rate of 0.230 (2019-2021). Projections indicate prevalence will reach 9529.745 per 100,000 by 2050 (95 % UI: -5109.425-24168.915), with peak burden shifting to ages 40-44. Women aged 40-50 will carry a disproportionately high burden.
CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic markedly accelerated the global depression burden, creating a dual-track pattern alongside persistent age-related prevalence. Middle-aged individuals, particularly women aged 40-50, are emerging as the core of new cases. Urgent targeted interventions are needed in high SDI regions to address the escalating burden.
PMID:41109418 | DOI:10.1016/j.jad.2025.120362
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