Development and Validation of a Machine Learning‑Based Predictive Model for Assessing the Risk of Comorbid Depression in Patients With Asthma

Alpha Psychiatry. 2025 Oct 28;26(5):47754. doi: 10.31083/AP47754. eCollection 2025 Oct.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of comorbid depression in asthma patients.

METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 2464 asthma patients with comorbid depression using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. Feature selection was conducted using the Boruta algorithm and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). Eight machine learning algorithms, namely Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Light Gradient Booster Machine (LGBM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), were trained using 5-fold cross-validation methodology. Model performance was evaluated through various metrics such as area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Interpretation was conducted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, highlighting feature importance.

RESULTS: The training set comprised 1724 participants, while the validation set included 740 participants, with a depression prevalence of 14.45%. Significant predictors identified included hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, sleep questionnaire (SLQ) scores, smoking status, Poverty Index Ratio (PIR), and educational level. The XGBoost model demonstrated superior performance compared with alternative machine learning (ML) algorithms, achieving an AUC of 0.750, an accuracy of 69.1%, a sensitivity of 68.2%, a specificity of 73.8%, and an F1 score of 79%. The SHAP method identified SLQ, PIR, and education level as the primary decision factors influencing the ML model’s predictions.

CONCLUSION: The XGBoost model effectively predicts the risk of depression in asthma patients, serving as a valuable reference for early clinical identification and intervention.

PMID:41209504 | PMC:PMC12593838 | DOI:10.31083/AP47754